You can’t predict the future. And yet, you have a responsibility to provide an appropriate education to each student in your district – no matter what disruptions or uncertainties may arise.

That’s where scenario planning comes in.

“In simple terms, scenario planning is a structured way to prepare for multiple plausible futures,” says Yasemin Arikan, director of futures research at NEXT Generation Consulting Inc. “It’s about developing educated insights into how the future may be different from today and then using those insights to inform decisions and actions.”

Scenario planning is distinct from strategic planning and contingency planning. Strategic planning is linear and goal-based; contingency planning focuses on clearly identified, likely-to occur risks that may interfere with a district’s strategic plan. In contrast, scenario planning is a dynamic process that considers a broad swath of drivers and outcomes.

Most schools and districts routinely engage in strategic planning and contingency planning; fewer use scenario planning, which is more common in the business world. That’s a mistake in our rapidly changing world.

“In my work, we often encounter planning initiatives that are well-intentioned, but they’re typically based on current or recent budgets – and on the assumption that there’s only one kind of future to prepare for,” Arikan says. “But if an organization always takes that approach – without thinking more broadly or exploring plausible alternative futures through scenario planning – it becomes increasingly risky and less prepared for the future.”

No one knows what, exactly, the future holds for education in California. But one thing is certain: Districts that engage in scenario planning will be better equipped to handle whatever comes along.

Use this six-step approach to prepare for multiple possible futures:

Step 1: Define scope and assemble your team.

You can start small, if you’d like. If scenario planning is a new concept or practice for your district, begin with simple conversation. Introduce the idea to your cabinet or central office administration; discuss the need to prepare for multiple possibilities. (You can use the COVID-19 pandemic and recent wildfires as vivid examples of disruptive events that required sudden adaptation. Reflect on how prior planning and decisions affected districts’ ability to pivot, with some able to respond more agilely than others.)

Collectively think about where you might focus your efforts. Are there some issues or uncertainties that seem especially relevant to your district now? That may be a great starting point.

Also consider who should be involved. Even if you’re starting small, it’s important to include key stakeholders.

“You can’t scenario plan in isolation,” says Wayne Hickman, Ed.D., assistant professor of educational leadership at Augusta University’s College of Education and Human Development. Diverse stakeholders bring different, essential information to the planning process, facilitating a more robust scenario planning process.

When Darin Brawley, Ed.D., became superintendent of Compton Unified School District in 2012, he was determined to ensure that Compton students would be prepared for the jobs and careers of the future. So, he reached out to and included business leaders from Boeing, Raytheon, Verizon and Apple.

Step 2. Identify and analyze drivers of change.

Time to get curious. Put on your metaphorical detective hat and start exploring trends that may impact your school or district. You can begin with historical data, but don’t forget to look more broadly and account for likely variables.

When Andy Paquette, CEO of TMS, a Massachusetts-based consulting firm serving K-12 schools, assists districts with scenario planning, he uses five years of data to conduct a trend analysis of operating expenses and material needs. Then he forecasts three years into the future using both historical and emerging trends, adding in anticipated increases in costs and local tax rates.

Hickman recommends using the PESTLE tool to organize your thinking and identify drivers your team might otherwise neglect. PESTLE is an acronym that represents six key areas: Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental. Spend time with your team discussing and identifying issues in each domain that may affect education over the next five years or so. Consider governmental stability and political priorities; economic growth, employment and consumer confidence; local demographics and social priorities; technological innovations and adoption; legal obligations; and climate and environmental influences.

At this stage, “you’re trying to get a 10,000-foot view of the landscape before you start trying to pare that down into a prioritized, workable set of scenarios that you can then examine,” Hickman says.

Step 3. Prioritize key drivers.

Once you’ve identified the possible drivers of change, collectively assess the likelihood and potential impact of each drive. You can use a 2×2 matrix with likelihood on the X-axis (from low to high) and impact on the Y-axis (from low to high) to visually organize your work.

You’ll want to concentrate your efforts on high-likelihood, high-impact drivers; you can ignore low-likelihood, low-impact drivers. (Low-likelihood but high-impact drivers may deserve some attention, but only after your team has developed plans to address the more likely scenarios.) Narrow your focus to the most critical drivers that require immediate and substantial attention.

Step 4. Develop detailed, plausible scenarios.

Use your prioritized drivers to imagine various futures. Think about what might happen in a plausible way, based on those identified forces.

Arikan and other futurists often encourage organizations to ponder at least three distinct possible, plausible futures: An expected future, or one that unfolds in a predictable way according to current trends; a challenging future, in which multiple disruptions happen simultaneously or key supports decline precipitously or disappear; and a surprisingly successful future that may result if the right things happen in the right ways. Together, discuss how each scenario could practically impact your district’s finances, staffing, programming and students. What challenges might arise? What opportunities?

An example: Although the president of the United States has directed the Secretary of Education to take all necessary steps to facilitate the closure of the Department of Education (DOE), no one yet knows when or how that may happen. Scenario planning helps districts explore possibilities. In an expected scenario, funding and support from the DOE continue as it has in the past. In a plausible challenging future, changes at the federal level result in decreased funding to the state, while the population of students requiring special education services continues to grow. In a surprisingly successful future, support from the state and local municipalities, as well as partnerships with businesses and nonprofit organizations, allow districts to continue to meet the needs of students who require special education services, even though federal support declines.

Step 5. Connect scenarios to strategy and decision making.

Collectively or in separate working groups, consider how your school or district could fulfill its mission in each plausible scenario.

“The question you’re trying to answer is: What do we want to happen and what will it take to get us there?” Arikan says. Think about things you can control or influence, particularly things that may help you in multiple futures. Strong relationships with district families and local businesses, for instance, will be an asset in every possible version of the future, so it makes sense to devote time and resources toward relationship building.

Drill down to identify your must-haves and must-dos. “We’re always analyzing and thinking about the core things we need to provide versus things that are nice to have and things that can go away if they have to,” says Brawley, Compton Unified’s superintendent. “We use a green/yellow/red system – yellow is stuff that we’ll try to keep in place; red can go away immediately, if needed; and green continues.” Categorizing programs, services and even equipment in that manner gives Compton Unified the ability to pivot quickly when needed.

Now is the time to craft contingency plans, so involve key stakeholders as needed. Given current uncertainty, most districts may want to take a close look at how to continue funding the supports required by students with IEPs and 504 plans. That means bringing your special education director and finance director into the conversation – along with others, like your transportation lead or school nurse – to assess current funding streams and explore alternative ways to meet student needs in the least restrictive environment.

Step 6. Engage your community.

Transparently share scenarios and plans with all stakeholders. Sharing the reality cost of district operations and various funding streams, as well as likely impacts and possible adaptations – fosters trust. When your community understands the challenges you face and the efforts exerted so you’re ready to adapt as needed, it’s more inclined to work with you, rather than push back, when tough decisions must be made.

“Your community may say, look, we want to keep our tax rate down for the citizenry. But should scenarios C or D occur, come back to us and we’ll start with a supplemental appropriation,” Paquette says.

Scenario planning doesn’t eliminate uncertainty; it helps you manage it. By exploring a range of plausible futures and involving diverse perspectives, school leaders can build flexibility and resilience for tomorrow.

Jennifer L.W. Fink, BSN, is an independent journalist and podcaster who covers education, health and parenting. Her writing credits include The New York Times, Washington Post, Scholastic, WeAreTeachers and U.S. News & World Report. Fink is the author of The To-Go Guide for Classroom Management: Quick Tips, Effective Strategies & Use-Now Tools for Teaching Success.